{"id":624,"date":"2019-05-14T14:27:32","date_gmt":"2019-05-14T17:27:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/?p=624"},"modified":"2019-05-16T09:55:27","modified_gmt":"2019-05-16T12:55:27","slug":"ships","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/ships\/","title":{"rendered":"BRAZIL SHIPS 4 MLN BAGS FOR THE FIRST TIME"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/i><\/span>Back<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

BRAZIL\nSHIPS 4 MLN BAGS FOR THE FIRST TIME<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China announced it will retaliate the US (even after president Trump warned that the country should not do it) turning markets even lower after last week worst performance of the stock market in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nUS president strategy might lower World growth and some analysts mention it\ncould be a turning point for a potential recession, which if happens here it\ncould make the race for re-election in 2020 a bit more challenging for Donald.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\nrisky assets sold off, commodities also suffered the impact with the CRB near\nFebruary lows led by sharp losses of cotton, copper and grains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coffee\ngot under pressure by the steep fall of London last Tuesday, which gave room\nfor New York to make a new contract low – within the idea mentioned here of the\narbitrage eventually taking away the \u201csupport\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robusta\nhas recovered quite well afterwards, partially helped by commercials buying\nappetite and then some speculators short covering, but arabica settled below\nUS$ 90 cents again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental Focus<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

High\ndifferentials for Uganda, Indonesia and Vietnam should, in theory, prevent\nfurther downward moves in London, but at the same time whoever had placed bets\non the tight\/firm basis of arabicas has not done well in the past years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\nis hard to say that new lows will not be tested given the perception of the\ngood availability\/inventories of robusta, producers holding back\/rolling price\nfixation and lastly because of the exportable \u201cexcess\u201d of conilons that shall\nbe delivered at the terminal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arabica\nalso suffers from similar issues, like comfortable stocks and the selling needs\nfrom the three main origins, more so on two largest ones that are in the\nharvest period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nBrazil, April exports totaled 2,975,057 bags and previous shipments were\nrevised upwards – including December, which stood at 4,001,029 bags, breaking\nthe 4 million bags barrier for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assuming\nthe same shipment pace of 2.9 million bags in May and June is kept then total\nexports for the current crop year is likely to be over 40 million \u2013 which\nironically still makes the carry-over estimated by several participants\nrelatively high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colombia\nreported that its coffee planted area has started to decline due to lower\ninternational prices. The FNC\u2019s president told the newswires that 40,000\nhectares of coffee area are being converted to other crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nhope for the \u201cC\u201d market to turn up now relies on the Real. If the Brazilian\npension reform is approved this semester, the currency can firm, helping New\nYork to find a bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nCFTC’s report showed that commercials still have buying appetite on futures and\noptions, not bad for those who thought that the buying would get thinner given\nthe continued weakness of the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Managed-money,\non the other hand, can potently add a lot on their short-side, comparing to the\nlevels we saw in October 2018, especially without any change on the\nfundamentals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical\nFocus<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

NY\nfirst support is at 87.60, followed then by 86.35 and 84.45. Resistance levels\nare at 91.50, 93.80 and 94.75. London recent low at US$ 1267 per ton is a key\npoint to be respected, otherwise 1212 and 1162 will be the next support areas\nto be tested. On the upside we shall look at 1379 and 1427 as resistance\nlevels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have\na nice week and good trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best regards,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodrigo Costa<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skype:\nrodrigoccosta10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WhatsApp:\n+1 646 468 7091<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BRAZIL SHIPS 4 MLN BAGS FOR THE FIRST TIME China announced it will retaliate the US (even after president Trump warned that the country should not [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=624"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":641,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions\/641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}