{"id":647,"date":"2019-05-29T15:42:21","date_gmt":"2019-05-29T18:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/?p=647"},"modified":"2019-05-29T15:44:56","modified_gmt":"2019-05-29T18:44:56","slug":"first-cold-front-in-brazil-stimulates-some-buying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/first-cold-front-in-brazil-stimulates-some-buying\/","title":{"rendered":"First cold front in Brazil stimulates some buying"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/i><\/span>Back<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

FIRST COLD FRONT IN BRAZIL STIMULATES SOME BUYING<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US\neconomic indicators behind expectations, rising trade tensions with China and\nUS troops being sent to the Middle East pressured stock markets in the last\nfive business days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nDollar Index traded at a new high of the year and then slid due to lower-than-expected\nmanufacturing data, lower housing numbers and declining durable goods orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nBrazilian Real devalued R$ 4.1211 in the week, the highest level since the R$\n4.2133 we have seen on August 30th<\/sup>, 2018 and still a little bit far\nfrom the record of R$ 4.2475 traded on September 24th<\/sup>, 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nCRB tumbled with the collapse of oil and gasoline, commodities whose\ninventories have been rising in recent weeks when historically stocks should be\ngoing lower given higher demand at the beginning of the travel season \u2013 which\nstarted on this long weekend marked my today\u2019s Memorial Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fear\nof World economic slowdown weighted heavily on commodities not even sparing\nenergy, which could be building up some premium in the wake of a possible\nMiddle East conflict – aggravated by threats of attack on Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coffee\nwas the biggest winner of the week, rising 6.75% in New York and 4.5% in\nLondon, a move triggered by the arrival of the first cold front in Brazil and\nthe break of technical levels in the chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although\nthe chances of frost in the Brazilian coffee plantations have diminished a lot\nthese days, the funds decided to buy the market, according to the last COT\nreport, and curiously the gross-short did not change much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nprice rebound also came after lighter selling from origins was felt near 90\ncents, level that has found good support for a few weeks, and London has\nattracted commercial buying interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\ndifferentials hardly changed, even with the weakening of currencies of the\nproducing countries, however the flow of business has improved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nUSDA began releasing its coffee crop estimates for the 2019\/2020 cycle and\namong origins reports, it repeated the same 14.3 million produced in Colombia\non 18\/19, with small changes for Vietnam (30.5 million), Indonesia (10.7\nmillion), Peru (4.5 million) and Guatemala (3.39 million bags).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For\nIndia, the entity expects an increase of 300 thousand bags of robusta, or a\ntotal of 5.48 million bags to be harvested between the two varieties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nBrazil the expected harvest is 59.3 million bags, divided between 41 million\narabica and 18.3 million conilon, and for the 18\/19 harvest, the USDA revised\nthe harvest to 64.8 million bags – the previous number was 63.4 million of\nbags. The domestic consumption considered by the Department of Agriculture was\n23.53 million bags, which makes the exportable surplus not that different from\nwhat the market believes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nEuropean Coffee Federation reported that green coffee stocks in most European\nports totaled 6,229,217 bags by the end of March, or 170,849 bags less than in\nFebruary. Exactly one year ago, the volume of the inventory was 5.4 million\nbags, and from October onwards, when more coffees from Brazil began to arrive\nthere, the variation was 57,000 more bags – almost nothing if we consider the\nvolume shipped in the period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nweekly settlement was not bad, technically speaking, but we might see some\nshort-term profit taking after the long holiday, especially after the weather\ndid not reach the low single digits that some forecasters predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Points\nto be observed in the chart are 95.25 and 90.20, levels that if broken will\naccelerate the move to the upside or downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\nhope to find some of you at the always pleasant and well-organized Coffee\nDinner at the beautiful J\u00falio Prestes Station in Sao Paulo tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wishing\nyou a nice week,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodrigo Costa<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skype:\nrodrigoccosta10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WhatsApp:\n+1 646 468 7091<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FIRST COLD FRONT IN BRAZIL STIMULATES SOME BUYING US economic indicators behind expectations, rising trade tensions with China and US troops being sent to the Middle [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=647"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":649,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647\/revisions\/649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}