{"id":809,"date":"2021-02-23T10:43:12","date_gmt":"2021-02-23T13:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/?p=809"},"modified":"2021-02-23T10:47:27","modified_gmt":"2021-02-23T13:47:27","slug":"crop-report-2021-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comexim.com.br\/en\/crop-report-2021-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Crop Report 2021\/2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/i><\/span>Voltar<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

Crop Report 2021\/2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Santos, January 6th, 2021<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dear Coffee Friends and Partners,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, we\u2019d like to wish you all a prosperous and healthy 2021.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what a year 2020 has been, definitely one for the futury history\nbooks.  When we look back at this time\nlast year, as we were compiling our Brazilian 2020\/2021 crop estimates, is when\nthe coronavirus began spreading globally, which at the time appeared to be a\nremote threat to our way our life.  A\nyear on, the virus has pretty much reached all corners of the globe and touched\neach and everyone of us in different ways. \nWhile there is plenty of optimism as vaccines are being rolled out\nworldwide, this is something that will continue to be part of our day-to-day\nlives troughout the better part of 2021.    \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big question lingering in everyone\u2019s mind is\nwhat has all this done to global coffee demand.   We all agree that there have been shifts in\nconsumption channels (i.e. out-of-home to in-home, etc), and that there is a\ngeneral impact on demand, but the truth is, the answer to this is far from\nclear.  Having said that, the focus of\nthis report will not be on demand but on our Brazilian green coffee production\nand exports estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking back to our crop report from a year ago, we\nmaintain our 2019\/2020 estimates at 56.8 million bags, split 38 for Arabica and\n18.8 for conilon.   With 40.2 million\nbags of exports during the crop cycle and 21 million bags of internal\nconsumtion, that leaves a carry over of 3.7 million bags coming into this\ncurrent season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The expectation coming into the current 2020\/2021\nwas already that of a big crop.   In last\nyear\u2019s report we estimated 67.7 million bags, being 48.25 for arabica and 19.45\nfor robusta.    Now we are just past the\nhalfway point of the season and we\u2019ve made some minor adjustments to both our\narabica and conilon estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the current 2020\/2021 season, we are estimating\na total crop of 68.0 million bags, being 50.8 million bags for arabica and 17.2\nmillion bags for robusta.   In other\nwords we have increased our arabica estimate by 2.55 million bags and reduced\nour robusta estimate by 2.25 mln bags, leaving a net increase of 300 thousand\nbags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exports have continued to break records with Brazil\nshipping 24.4 million bags in July-December 2020 period, and 44.4 million bags\nduring the calendar year (Jan-Dec-2020).  \nJan-21 export registrations are starting to indicate that this pace will\nstart to slow, and as a result we are forecasting a further 20.7 mln bags of\nexports during the Jan-June 21 period, reaching a total export figure of\napproximately 45.1 mln bags for the full July20-June21 crop cycle.    Leaving us with a carry-over for 20\/21 of\n6.6 million bags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact of the below average rainfall and high\ntemperatures in Brazil have been widely circulated in the market.   Perhaps we are bit less pessimistic than\nothers, but there is no doubt that the 21\/22 crop potencial will suffer as a\nresult.   We see Mogiana as the region\nthat has been hit the hardest, and while weather conditions have improved, it\nwas a bit too late to reverse to completely reverse the situation.   The weather impact coupled with the\nbi-annual off-cycle will inevitably lead to a reduction to a much greater tune\nthan the market was forecasting months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that in mind, for 2021\/2022 we are forecasting\n53.7 million bags, split 35.2 for arabica and 18.5 for robusta.   This would imply 30.7% reduction in the\narabica crop and a 7.5% increase in robusta.  \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A global supply and demand deficit for 2021\/2022 is\npretty much the consensus, but again the size of this defecit will largely\ndepend on demand and consumption and the pace at which countries can implement\ntheir vaccionation programs and get their economies back to whatever the\n\u201cnormal\u201d will look like.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exports from Brazill will naturally fall as a\nresult of this in the 21\/22 period, and we are estimating approximately 38.3\nmillion bags (a 15% reduction), however we believe that this year\u2019s ending\nstocks, both at origin and destination will be drawn down to extremely low\nlevels as a result.   In Brazil for\ninstance, and according to our estimates, we would end up with a carry-over for\n21\/22 of 1.1 million bags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may all sound doom and gloom, but we largely\nbelieve that these numbers are already priced into the market, for the most\npart, and these forecasts will largely play out in the differentials.   That being said, we are supportive to mildly\nbullish flat price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly, we are pleased to share that our European\nsubsidiary is already in the final stages of incorporation and we hope to share\nmore news with you all on this in the very near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next pages includes the data tables containing\nthe numbers we\u2019ve discussed in this report, and we remain at your disposal\nshould you require any additional clarifications or wish to discuss further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay safe and Best Regards from all of us,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Team Comexim <\/p>\n\n\n\n

trading@comexim.com.br<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n